Every figure on the stat is a measurement of the outbreak two weeks ago when they caught it.
Current confirmed cases are a TINY FRACTION of infections, because they are only testing people who get sick and show up in hospitals.
The Infected are 10-20x Higher than the Confirmed Cases
Best estimates are that 10-20% of cases need hospitalization. So in places without universal testing (most western nations), only 10-20% of infected get sick enough to go to the hospital where they might be tested.
That 10-20% translates to 5-10x the number of tested cases that are walking around not seeking medical care.
But in the US especially, a lot of folks who are showing up in hospitals are NOT BEING TESTED.
How much does that increase the 5-10x? Who knows.
If we assume only half the people that should be tested actually ARE being tested (that might be significantly overestimating the testing in the US!), then that means that for every confirmed case there are 10-20 more that are walking around feeling okay, but spreading it.
The Number of Confirmed Cases Indicates Infection Numbers from Weeks Ago
With the incubation period and the length of time before people get sick enough to go to the hospital, we know most who test positive (in the nations without universal testing) actually caught the virus 2-3 weeks before.
They get infected, there's a week incubation, maybe they start to feel a scratchy nose like they're coming down with a cold, they get a fever, they don't get better, they go to the hospital, they get tested, then two days later the results show 1 additional confirmed case. But they were infected 2-3 weeks ago.
Italy has implemented massive lockdowns of affected region two weeks ago, and they are still not seeing a slowing of infection rates. Because they got infected before the lockdown.
Exponential Growth is Unfathomable for Most Humans
The US has about 1750 confirmed cases as of March 12.
If you make a conservative estimate and assume there are only 10 infections for every confirmed case, that means the infected rate would be 17,500 infected at the same time as the 1750 confirmed cases.
Now if you assume 17,500 were infected only two weeks ago, and you assume 20% growth PER DAY (which is about what we've seen in western nations and below the 24-40% growth we've seen in the US), then you would expect to have about 225,000 infected Americans right now.
That's a low estimate. 225,000 infected with 1,750 confirmed cases.
And on March 13 with that fairly low 20% day over day growth, we'd expect that to be 270,000.
• March 14: 325,000
• March 15: 390,000
• March 16: 465,000
• March 17: 560,000
You can see how nuts exponential 20% growth per day is.
If you take even just 25% per day growth (which we've seen just about everywhere), but still figure only a fairly fast 2-week delay between infection and confirmation, that 225,000 number balloons to 400,000 infected with 1,750 cases.
If you figure a 3-week delay... 1.9 million infected for 1,750 confirmed cases.
Rewind a bit and let's assume there weren't just 10 infections per confirmed case, but 20 (due to lack of testing in the US). That means that all those estimated infections would be double. 550,000 low estimate, 800,000 medium estimate, and a high (but not unreasonable) estimate of 3.8 million infected for 1,750 confirmed cases.
TL;DR: This is real, folks. We need to implement lockdown measures and universal testing to #FlattenTheCurve. And we need to do it yesterday.
Be well out there.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
Current confirmed cases are a TINY FRACTION of infections, because they are only testing people who get sick and show up in hospitals.
The Infected are 10-20x Higher than the Confirmed Cases
Best estimates are that 10-20% of cases need hospitalization. So in places without universal testing (most western nations), only 10-20% of infected get sick enough to go to the hospital where they might be tested.
That 10-20% translates to 5-10x the number of tested cases that are walking around not seeking medical care.
But in the US especially, a lot of folks who are showing up in hospitals are NOT BEING TESTED.
How much does that increase the 5-10x? Who knows.
If we assume only half the people that should be tested actually ARE being tested (that might be significantly overestimating the testing in the US!), then that means that for every confirmed case there are 10-20 more that are walking around feeling okay, but spreading it.
The Number of Confirmed Cases Indicates Infection Numbers from Weeks Ago
With the incubation period and the length of time before people get sick enough to go to the hospital, we know most who test positive (in the nations without universal testing) actually caught the virus 2-3 weeks before.
They get infected, there's a week incubation, maybe they start to feel a scratchy nose like they're coming down with a cold, they get a fever, they don't get better, they go to the hospital, they get tested, then two days later the results show 1 additional confirmed case. But they were infected 2-3 weeks ago.
Italy has implemented massive lockdowns of affected region two weeks ago, and they are still not seeing a slowing of infection rates. Because they got infected before the lockdown.
Exponential Growth is Unfathomable for Most Humans
The US has about 1750 confirmed cases as of March 12.
If you make a conservative estimate and assume there are only 10 infections for every confirmed case, that means the infected rate would be 17,500 infected at the same time as the 1750 confirmed cases.
Now if you assume 17,500 were infected only two weeks ago, and you assume 20% growth PER DAY (which is about what we've seen in western nations and below the 24-40% growth we've seen in the US), then you would expect to have about 225,000 infected Americans right now.
That's a low estimate. 225,000 infected with 1,750 confirmed cases.
And on March 13 with that fairly low 20% day over day growth, we'd expect that to be 270,000.
• March 14: 325,000
• March 15: 390,000
• March 16: 465,000
• March 17: 560,000
You can see how nuts exponential 20% growth per day is.
If you take even just 25% per day growth (which we've seen just about everywhere), but still figure only a fairly fast 2-week delay between infection and confirmation, that 225,000 number balloons to 400,000 infected with 1,750 cases.
If you figure a 3-week delay... 1.9 million infected for 1,750 confirmed cases.
Rewind a bit and let's assume there weren't just 10 infections per confirmed case, but 20 (due to lack of testing in the US). That means that all those estimated infections would be double. 550,000 low estimate, 800,000 medium estimate, and a high (but not unreasonable) estimate of 3.8 million infected for 1,750 confirmed cases.
TL;DR: This is real, folks. We need to implement lockdown measures and universal testing to #FlattenTheCurve. And we need to do it yesterday.
Be well out there.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro